Title

2013-based Welsh National Park population projections, 2013 to 2038

Last update

21 October 2015 21 October 2015

Next update

Not updated, will be replaced by a future projection

Publishing organisation

Welsh Government

Source 1

2013-based population projections for National Park areas in Wales, Welsh Government

Contact email

stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Designation

None

Lowest level of geographical disaggregation

National Parks

Geographical coverage

Wales

Languages covered

English only

General description

This dataset provides population projections for National Parks and Residual Local Authority Areas in Wales by gender, single year of age and each year from the base year of 2013, through the projection period to 2038. This is the third set of population projections published for the three National Parks in Wales, but the first set to take into account the results of the 2011 Census.

Note that the projections become increasingly uncertain the further we try to look into the future.

Data collection and calculation

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population, and are based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends. Projections only indicate what may happen should the recent trends continue. Projections done in this way do not make allowances for the effects of local or central government policies on future population levels, distribution and change.

The 2013 population estimates have been used as the base for the National Park projections. The projected population is for 30 June each year. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. Usual residents away from home temporarily are included, but visitors are excluded. Students are counted at their term-time address. It should also be noted that the UN definition of an international migrant is used - those changing country of residence for a period of at least 12 months. Short-term migrants (eg migrant workers from Eastern European countries) are not counted in the population estimates and hence are not included in the population projections.

These projections are based on a similar methodology to the 2011-based local authority population projections. Detailed information on this methodology can be found via the weblinks. For the National Park projections, fertility, mortality and migration data was obtained from the Office for National Statistics for the three National Parks and used to form assumptions. The methodology only differed when the required data was not available at a National Park level. The only special population group included in the National Park population projections were the home armed forces.

Note due to methodological differences the national park population projection is not directly comparable with the 2011 Local authority projections.

Frequency of publication

Every two to four years

Data reference periods

Data are published for the period 2013 to 2038.

Users, uses and context

See the National Park authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Rounding applied

Data are rounded independently to the nearest whole number and may not add exactly.

Revisions information

No revisions have been made to the data published for 2013. These data replaced the 2008 local authority population projections for Wales as the formal estimates of population growth.

Statistical quality

See the National Park authority population projection statistical release in weblinks.

Weblinks

National Park authority population projections statistical release: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/population-projections-national-parks/?lang=en;
Local authority population projections statistical release: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/local-authority-population-projections/?lang=en;
National projections: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2012-based-reference-volume--series-pp2/index.html

Keywords

Population projections; population growth; migration; natural change; births; deaths

Name

POPU5030